Here is an interesting article on the subject, based on data from Iceland.

Iceland is a unique country in that they have conducted such extensive testing of the entire population, not only of people with suspected symptoms and hospitalized patients like most counties does. This gives a much better and more complete picture of the outbreak and opens up for a deeper understanding about where we are heading.

https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b

His model seems plausible. Signs are already showing in most western countries that we are leveling out, after that follows the decline. A few more weeks. And by August it will be gone.

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I agree that the number of people who have been infected is much higher than suspected, or reported, but I don't agree that the population will be saturated and everyone will have caught it, so that it can begin to "go away" by August, simply because so many people have been practicing "social distancing" and "self isolation", that some of those people will continue to become infected, and draw out the "curve" for a longer period of time, before it finally goes away. Perhaps it will be more like November or December before the number of cases of COVID-19 drops to nearly zero, world wide.

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Interpreting available data is only half the job. The other half is analyzing whether the data you have is complete and what might be missing.

Ali's post completely omits the very real possibility of reinfection. At this point, we simply do not know for how long those who have been previously infected stay immune to this disease. Virologists use the term "initially immune" for good reason. Just because you have had the common flu before, you are not immune for life. At this point, the assumption is that the same applies to Covid19.

Until we do have more information on this topic, it is simply premature to make predictions regarding how soon the crisis might be "over". Based on expert opinions, there is a high probability we could be dealing with similar issues in 2021.

The best hope is still that viable vaccines reach the state so they can be mass-produced and be made widely available in the not-too-distant future.

Before Covid-19, around 3 in every 20 of hospitalisations due to exacerbations to COPD and chronic asthma patients were caused by coronavirus.

It's always been there. It'll always be there.

And by the way, Covid-19 is so dangerous to people probably because it was in a bat vector. It's not in a virus' long-term interests to be deadly to its host, because that makes it harder to spread. Given the rapid mutation rate, that means it tends to get less deadly as it spreads.

Which is why the social media bollocks about it having 'escaped a Wuhan lab' might make a virologist laugh in your face. Ironically (unless they had been for some reason culturing it in bat cells), if it had escaped the lab it would be far less dangerous. Unless it was meant for warfare, in which case it a 3.5% mortality rate with 90% of the victims having poor health would be FAIL. Generally opposing armies aren't made up of people with diabetes and high blood pressure.

In cell culture, there's absolutely no need for a pathogen to have immunomodular proteins, virulence or indeed any other way to avoid the host immune system. And as they say, use it or lose it - mutants that saved energy by not having these things would soon outbreed the other variations and become the main strain which then can't survive outside culture. This can be a real problem for people who intentionally grow pathogens for research.

i guess most of the MorphOS team has been locked down like everyone else lately so how comes MorphOS 4 isn't out yet ?

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You seem to assume that the lockdown made any significant difference in the lifestyle of the average MorphOS-developer.......

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Not friendly, not funny, and completely off topic (or almost completely). I could ask why other development teams haven't released this or that based on the same reasoning, but I don't want to further derail the thread. How about starting your own thread to tell us what productive things you are doing while "locked down", or tell us how people in Paris are coping with the COVID-19 virus problem in their city?

I guess "World Peace" is a bit too much to ask as a result from this crisis, but can't we at least walk in that direction?

Chine is Guilty! Now they can buy the European companies, houses, lands all to halft price, they have money tthey sell us the mask, and COVID-19 test and other medical supplies and his companies now are the only open, besides the virus only are in Wuhan, nor in Beijing and Shanghai, the first the official city and the second the economic, while in Europe we have the virus in all sites even in little towns, the explain?....

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Chemtrails


Obviously


4realz


*doh*

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China wants the new master of the world instead of USA.

>> i guess most of the MorphOS team has been locked down like
>> everyone else lately so how comes MorphOS 4 isn't out yet ? :-D

> completely off topic (or almost completely).

On the other hand, considering the sub-forum this thread resides in ("General Discussion", as opposed to "Off-Topic"), this was the very first comment in this thread with the required MorphOS connection :-)

Oh no.. we doomed.. Covid19 has reached North Korea. Not even the almighty ruler could not prevent this.

[ Edited by hooligan 19.04.2020 - 19:19 ]

At least in North Korea they don't have to worry about how to silently shove the AppleGoogleCovidTracker framework into the OS of every smartphone outthere.
Because nobody has one... (i assume):)

They already have a pretty good locator system in NK. You have to report to your superior every day at a certain time, and if you fail you're sent to a death camp.

Meanwhile, on the profiteering front:

https://www.discreetfx.com/SupportAmigaCoders.html

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The mobile phone market in NK seems to be pretty big and their custom Android build already has tracking software built into it. If you live near the border you can make calls to China, presumably using an imported phone and SIM card for a Chinese provider.

Whaat? They allow the use of capitalist invented technology??

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No, it's not. There are 2 assumptions that are simply false: he uses mortality rate of 1.5% (which is the current WHO estimate) with the dataset of the currently tested positive. No, the 1.5% number is the result of applyng a similar data processing to the currently tested positive, death rate with respect to the people tested positive is much higher (15% in Belgium, 13% in Italy and UK, 12% in France, 10% in Spain, 5.5% in the USA). If you apply the same adjustement twice, you are not adjusting. You are getting completely wrong numbers. Even the second adjustement (96% of the cases gets unnoticed) is likely wrong: current consensus in Italy, for instance, is that there are 8 to 10 cases that go unnoticed for every person tested positive, which means that the number he should use is closer to 90% than 96% (which again makes some difference). And again the mortality of the CoVid appears to be somewhere between 1 and 2%, which is what the WHO says.
Heck, he should at least have taken a look at the data he was starting from (Iceland): mortality there is 0.5%, likely because positives gets controlled and treated very early and around 15% of the population has been tested. Experience is that if elder people wait until oxigen saturation is below 90% and they actually need oxigen before accessing the hospital, death is a much more likely outcome, so they should check saturation (but a lot of the times they do not know for sure to be infected before accessing the hospital).

Bottom line: it will likely take more time before there is no danger anymore, and death toll might continue to increase.

Kind regards,
Andrea

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Was it truly necessary to lecture me on a joke that you simply didn't like ?
Chill out man !

Bigfoot cannot order pizza, therefore work is at a complete halt.