• ASiegel
    Posts: 1371 from 2003/2/15
    From: Central Europe
    Quote:

    takemehomegrandma wrote:
    https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843b

    His model seems plausible. Signs are already showing in most western countries that we are leveling out, after that follows the decline. A few more weeks. And by August it will be gone. :-)

    Interpreting available data is only half the job. The other half is analyzing whether the data you have is complete and what might be missing.

    Ali's post completely omits the very real possibility of reinfection. At this point, we simply do not know for how long those who have been previously infected stay immune to this disease. Virologists use the term "initially immune" for good reason. Just because you have had the common flu before, you are not immune for life. At this point, the assumption is that the same applies to Covid19.

    Until we do have more information on this topic, it is simply premature to make predictions regarding how soon the crisis might be "over". Based on expert opinions, there is a high probability we could be dealing with similar issues in 2021.

    The best hope is still that viable vaccines reach the state so they can be mass-produced and be made widely available in the not-too-distant future.
  • »17.04.20 - 18:43
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