Yokemate of Keyboards
Posts: 2795 from 2006/3/21
From: Northern Calif...
Quote:takemehomegrandma wrote:
Here is an interesting article on the subject, based on data from Iceland.
Iceland is a unique country in that they have conducted such extensive testing of the entire population, not only of people with suspected symptoms and hospitalized patients like most counties does. This gives a much better and more complete picture of the outbreak and opens up for a deeper understanding about where we are heading.
https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/covid-19-from-a-data-scientists-perspective-95bd4e84843bHis model seems plausible. Signs are already showing in most western countries that we are leveling out, after that follows the decline. A few more weeks. And by August it will be gone.
I agree that the number of people who have been infected is much higher than suspected, or reported, but I don't agree that the population will be saturated and everyone will have caught it, so that it can begin to "go away" by August, simply because so many people have been practicing "social distancing" and "self isolation", that some of those people will continue to become infected, and draw out the "curve" for a longer period of time, before it finally goes away. Perhaps it will be more like November or December before the number of cases of COVID-19 drops to nearly zero, world wide.
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